Sunday, March 30, 2008
To Apply for Safaricom IPO Online
Please before you apply for this shares, please read the prospectus....Be an informed Investor.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
So 25% of who?????
So, is the gova selling 25% of safaricom or 25% of its ownership?????
Hapa ni Bw Kimunya...
"On the ownership of Mobitelea, Mr Kimunya said it would not warrant the delaying of the IPO since the Government was only off loading part of its 60 per cent shares. Mobitelea is alleged to own five of the 40 per cent shares held by Vodafone Plc in Safaricom."
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=3&newsid=119896
So safaricom is worthy more than 200B, says Koimett
http://www.bdafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6664&Itemid=5822
So the shareholding structure post IPO is to look as follows:
Shareholder | Percentage Holding |
PS, Treasury | 35% |
Vodafone Kenya & Mobitelea | 40% |
Kenyan Public | 25% |
Also according to the Prospectus on page 15 it states
"
In accordance with the GoK s policy of divesting its ownership in public enterprises, the GoK through the
Treasury is making available 10,000,000,000 ordinary shares, par value KShs 0.05 each, of Safaricom
Then on the same page it states "Total number of issued ordinary shares
of the Company = 40,000,000,000"
Well that tells me that, 10B/40B = 1/4 which is 10B.....
Dollar vs Shilling
Warren Buffet rule #1, don't lose money, rule #2, don't forget rule #1.
No more multiple CDSC a/cs
No need for Wanjiku to invest her 90K in multiple accounts.The issue will be Pro-rata.If allocation happens to be 50%,it will apply across all accounts hence all you will end up with is shares worth 45K either way.In terms of transaction fee,you will pay more for mutiple accounts and when it comes to harmonisation of accounts,you will cough another 1.5%......for no reason!!
Na hiyo Kimunya amekataa....
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/downloads/biz16032008.pdf
***************************************************************************
With the Safaricom prospectus expected in the next two weeks just before the offer begins(28th March),lets indulge on some preliminary analysis based on the facts on the ground:
- The government is offloading 25% of Safaricom worth Ksh 50 B.This means Safaricom(100% )is worth KSH200B
- The total number of shares on offer are 10B at Ksh 5 per share(This means that the total number of issued shares are 40B of which 10B will be listed (25%))
- The allocation will be classified into two categories: Domestic investors(East Africans) and International institutional investors.
- The price for East Africans is fixed at Ksh 5 but for the international institutional investors,it will be determined via a book building process(That means foreigners may have to buy it at a higher price than Ksh 5 per share which would be a good signal of the anticipated opening price on June 9 when the shares begin trading in the NSE)
- 65% of the offered shares are reserved for East African residents-Kenya,Uganda,Tanzania,Rwanda and Burundi(Sorry 'Young' but Nigerians will compete with other 'foreigners' for the remaining 35%).This means the 'East Africans' will need to raise KSH 32.5B.
- In case the domestic investors(East Africans) oversubscribe their category by more than 200%,their is a provision that 15% of the shares reserved for the international pool will be clawed back to the domestic pool(I believe the financial gurus call this the claw back method).
- This means that if the domestic pool raises Ksh 65B( 200% of domestic category),then the shares to be allocated to this category will be 80% of the total offer(ie 8B shares Worth Ksh 40B).
- This method will ensure that one can expect to be allocated at least 60% of applied for shares in the event of a 200% oversubscription in the domestic category(40/65 x 100%=61.5%)
- Safaricom in Year ended 2006 made a Net profit of KSH 12B.This means an Earnings per share (EPS) of: KSH 12B/40B = KSH 0.30
- The share is therefore being offered at P/E of :KSH5/KSH 0.3=16.66
The rumoured Gross profit for year ended 2007 is KSH 21B(Net Profit KSH 14.7B)This means the shares are actually being offered at an EPS of KSH 0.3675 and P/E of 13.6.
The financial year for Safaricom ends in March.This begs the question whether the dividents for year ending March 2008 will be accruing to the government or to the new shareholders.I strongly believe the latter will be the case.I suspect the year end results will be announced sometime in May before the shares hit the market in June.It will be interesting to see in the prospectus the dividend policy Safaricom aims to put in place.
The share is not only well priced based on the unit price Ksh 5,but also well priced based on its P/E.The limiting of the foreign allocation to 35% (or 20% in case of a >200% oversubscription in the domestic category)ensures that Post IPO, the share will receive sustained demand from foreigners as they will want to up their shareholding.
***********************************************************************Monday, March 24, 2008
Unit Trusts
Unit trusts offer an affordable and convenient way to diversify an investment. With as little as KShs100,000 for most funds, investors are able to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks of companies (or other instruments) that may otherwise be out of their reach. The more companies the collective 'pool' is invested in, the less the performance of each one will affect the whole. So, one of the main fears of direct equity investment -- that you risk losing all your money - is much diminished.
When investing in unit trusts, investors are also leveraging the expertise of fund managers who are full time professionals. Fund managers will sometimes have analysis or research that an ordinary investor would not have access to and this could enable the fund manager to make better investment decisions.
Unit trusts represent a convenient and effective way to invest in foreign markets. Unit trusts can invest in areas that may be difficult to access as an individual, usually for reasons of size, liquidity or legislation. Even for serious private investors, this is a huge advantage
Unit trusts are highly liquid and investors can convert their unit to cash anytime, as fund managers are obliged to buy back the units from the investor. Moreover, there are no restrictions on how long an investment has to be held before units can be sold. Investors can easily buy extra units or sell down their holdings piecemeal. They don't have to depend on other buyers in order to sell their units either, because units are created or cancelled depending on demand.
Investors with relatively small amounts to invest may still enjoy economies of scale: each investor can gain access to a much wider number of stocks, or markets than if he had tried to buy them individually. For example, to buy all the shares in a typical unit trust portfolio would be very expensive since dealing in small lots in individual shares is pricey. Typically, a unit trust consists of 20-40 stocks
Unit trusts offer convenience since you can buy and sell units whenever you want. Prices are quoted daily in the newspapers and on web sites. Moreover, there are no requirements for holding period (although anything below three years is generally not encouraged for Balanced and Equity Fund). Investors can also buy extra units or sell down their holdings at any time.
It is sensible to establish at the outset your investment goals (for example, aiming to save for retirement, buying a home, etc) and look for a fund with an investment objective that matches these needs and expectations.
- Fees, in a standardized format
- Investment Objective
- Some financial data
- Investment methods
- Risk factors and description
- Investment management and compensation
- Dividend and Capital Gain distributions
- Front-end load refers to a charge when you purchase your units. Front-end loads are often negotiable and average around 4-5%.
- Back-end load refers to a charge when you sell your units. Back-end loads start around 5% and decline as you hold your units for a number of years.
Size of Investment | As % of Offering Price |
Less than KShs 500,000 | 5.0% |
KShs 500,000 but less than KShs 1,000,000 | 4.75% |
KShs 1,000,000 but less than KShs 2,500,000 | 4.5% |
KShs 2,500,000 but less than KShs 5,000,000 | 4.25% |
KShs 5,000,000 or more | 4.0% |
Year Since Purchase | Contingent Deferred Sales Charge as a Percentage of Amount Subject to Charge |
First | 5.00% |
Second | 4.00% |
Third | 3.00% |
Fourth | 2.0%. |
Fifth | 1.50% |
Sixth and After | 1.0% |
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Smart NSE: Add this
Depends. On how long you are investing, currency used and timing. If you send funds for an IPO such as Safcom for speculative purposes using one of the strong currencies, you definitely lose because the Ksh will strengthen pre-IPO and weaken post-IPO as others do like you. For the long-term investor, as the economy grows, then ceteris paribus, the Ksh will strengthen, i.e. you'll gain twice. Or you could keep the funds in Kenya.
You are crowding out resident Kenyans:
Probably. So are you if you are in real estate or helping someone set up a business i.e. BS. Kenya needs your foreign currency/capital badly. And if you to make have a buck to send it there, investing at the NSE is your route
Its not easy to get a good broker:
Yes. Go for the obvious ones (D&B, CFC) and ones that meet your initial needs until you have found your feet.
It’s an illiquid market i.e. it’s hard to buy/sell shares when you want them
Yes. It’s not the FTSE or NYSE. There are like 49 stocks being traded and most have around 30% of their shares that are actively traded. That said....
Shares take long to execute:
Depends. On what quantity you want, the share you are looking to buy and your price vs the prevailing market price and timing. Typically, you can get 10,000 KCB shares in the same day if you've priced them within range of the previous day's high and low provided its a normal trading day i.e. there are no events affecting KCB's price or the NSE. By comparison, you'll be waiting for days to get 1,000 NMG shares.
There is no online trading:
True. But you can do your orders online (for D&B anyway). The actual issue is that Kenya doesn't ye have the legislation allowing Kenyan banks to use encryption for online transactions.
There is a lack of information about the listed stocks:
True up to a point. The last two years have seen an explosion of information websites from NMG's Business Daily, StocksKenya, brokers research teams to various blogs. On the other hand, a combination of unclear corporate governance legislation, CMA incompetence and firms' lack of awareness of shareholder value mean many barely have functional websites let alone providing updated information.
Its not easy to send money to a broker:
Apart from D&B, I don't of any other broker that has a correspondent bank. So this might be a tricky one if like me, you like to see an audit trail in your payments.
The trading charges are very high or unknown:
Myth. You get charged 2.12% if your order is under Ksh100,000 and 1.82% if its over Ksh100k. The tricky bit comes when your order even if over Ksh100k can not be executed in one go. Then you get charged 2.12% for each separate order.
The brokers will take your money/shares:
It’s been happening since the CDSC came along and even before. However, I don't expect it to go much longer because even GoK will get tired of it (otherwise, we won't get the foreign investors we want to come to Kenya). If you have relas/friends you trust in Kenya, pay them a apportion of your dividends and once a week the will go and demand a printed of your account from either your broker or CDSC.
Brokers will ignore your price requests:
True, if they are crooked, they'll. Others will ignore your order altogether if you ask for a price at 50% below prevailing one unless you know something they don't. Typically, ask for a price ceiling i.e. "at no more than". For most brokers, the order remains live for a month and then you have to re-order again.
Brokers only pay attention if you have loadsofmoney to invest:
Several brokers, Kestrel among them have set thresholds for the type of client they want. I think D&B should do the same because it practices it. However, some of the smaller brokers (e.g. Afrika Investment Bank) do deal with investors equally.
Capital gains tax is not applied when you sell your shares:
True, but you get 30% charge on dividends.